The 2021 Nobel Laureate in Economics provided compelling experimental evidence on the shifting dynamics of remote work, classroom technology, and the integration of artificial intelligence across both industry and academia. In a subsequent dialogue with Dean José De Gregorio, Imbens issued a candid warning: Latin America remains ill-prepared for the structural transformations on the horizon.
Professor Guido Imbens inaugurated the 2026 Academic Year at the University of Chile’s Faculty of Economics and Business (FEN) with a masterclass titled “Beyond Correlation: Causality for Social and Data Sciences.” Addressing a captive audience of students and scholars in the Aula Magna, the Stanford academic set a rigorous tone for the coming year.
Who is Guido Imbens? Born in 1963 in Geldrop, Netherlands, Guido Imbens was educated at Erasmus University Rotterdam before earning his PhD from Brown University in 1991. Following prestigious faculty appointments at Harvard, UCLA, and Berkeley, he joined the Stanford Graduate School of Business in 2012, where he currently holds the chair in Applied Econometrics. A former editor of Econometrica (2019–2025), Imbens shared the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Joshua Angrist and David Card. The Swedish Academy lauded his work for fundamentally altering empirical research, enabling scholars to extract definitive causal answers from complex, real-world data.
Watch the full masterclass
Correlation is Not Causality Imbens structured his lecture around this foundational distinction, tracing the evolution of experimental methodology from the seminal works of Ronald Fisher and Jerzy Neyman in the 1930s to the sophisticated adaptive designs currently employed by global tech giants.
The core of the masterclass was dedicated to recent controlled trials. A West Point study revealed that students with laptop access performed worse on economics finals, with the negative impact being most pronounced among male students and previously high-achievers. In a call center environment, the implementation of an AI assistant—which suggested real-time responses—yielded a 14% increase in successful hourly case resolutions. Highlighting a nuanced study from a management consultancy, Imbens noted: “Within the frontier, AI helps; outside the frontier, AI hinders.” Regarding the remote work debate, he cited a 2024 Nature paper demonstrating that hybrid models slashed staff turnover without compromising productivity.
The Future of Work and Chile’s Strategic Outlook Following the presentation, Dean José De Gregorio and the Nobel Laureate engaged in a wide-ranging discussion focused on three primary axes: the limitations of individual studies, the future of labor, and the specific outlook for Chile.
On the validity of using a single study to define policy, Imbens argued that “a single paper is never definitive; what is required is the accumulation of diverse evidence.” He cited the long-standing debate over minimum wage and employment as an example of how multiple studies with varying methodologies eventually converge on a consensus.
Regarding AI’s impact on the labor market, he noted that the sheer velocity of change complicates long-term forecasting: “Things are changing incredibly fast. In the last six months alone, the way we write code has transformed entirely.” He warned that the specific tasks affected would vary by country, emphasizing that this heterogeneity matters: “If call centers are heavily impacted, those effects will concentrate in specific geographies that must prepare with extreme care.”
Imbens rejected the thesis of irreversible technological unemployment, albeit with significant caveats. “We have historically been wrong in assuming that jobs would simply vanish without new ones emerging. However, exactly what those new roles will be and what skills they require remains unclear.” He used radiology as an illustration: a decade ago, AI was predicted to displace radiologists; today, there are more professionals in the field than ever, though they are now required to be expert users of AI tools.
Turning his attention to Chile, Imbens offered a nuanced assessment: “I have noted that Chile has made strides in fostering collaboration between academia and the private sector, and that there is a clear focus on how AI will impact the world. However, it does not yet seem clear what concrete steps are being taken to prepare the workforce and society for the systemic changes ahead.”